An Application Of Survival Analysis On The Prevalence And Risk Factors Of Breast Cancer In Namibia

ABSTRACT

Cancer is a universal disease that affects people regardless of race, sex, socio-economic status and culture. With just an approximated population size of 2.3 million people NSA (2011), Namibia is not excluded from this. If not detected on time and treated on time, cancer can make treatment less likely to succeed and reduce the chances of survival. The study was aimed at examining the prevalence and trends for breast cancer patients, regardless of patients’ sex, as well as establishing the risk factors associated with breast cancer in Namibia. Secondary data obtained from the Cancer Association of Namibia for the periods of 2013 to 2016 was used. Descriptive statistics were performed in the form of figures and tables to explore demographic characteristics of the patients. Survival analysis techniques (Kaplan-Meier to construct the survival curves, Log-Rank Test to determine differences in survival between groups and Cox Proportional Hazard to investigate the association between the survival time of the patients and their demographic characteristics) were used to estimate the survival rate of the breast cancer patients. Patient survival was measured by their age at diagnosis and their age at death. Thus, the event variable was the patient’s status (alive or dead). Results revealed that breast cancer can affect anybody regardless of sex in Namibia. Khomas and Oshana regions had the highest percentage of reported breast cancers cases. Results showed that the survival rate of breast cancer was influenced by Age group, and Ethnicity. Vambos were the most diagnosed with breast cancer followed by Whites. Factors that were significantly associated with breast cancer were age category of 41-50 and 61-70 years. The older the patient becomes the more likely they were to experience an event, because the Hazard Ratio had been increasing with age. The research concluded that Age, Ethnicity and Date of diagnosis were associated with breast cancer in Namibia. The research study recommends that there is a need of a greater focus along the breast cancer care pathway in Namibia, with emphases on improving access to early diagnosis at early age.