ABSTRACT
The increasing incidence of flooding across the globe in recent times and the attendant devastating impact has heightened anxiety among the people, investors, investment advisers, policy makers and prompted media attention. Recent research efforts have focused on the assessment of the impacts on people, environments, activities, future implications and mechanisms of arresting the menace. This study contributes to this body of knowledge by examining the perception of valuation experts on flood risk on residential property value in Lagos State. Questionnaires are administered to qualified estate surveyors and valuers from 78 Estate Surveying and Valuation Firms across Lagos State. Data were analysed with tables, percentages, 4-point Likert scale and mean ranking (RII). Result shows that majority of the valuation experts admits that the incidence of flooding is on the rise but differ significantly on the impact on property value. The study further reveals that there is no particular approach to flood risk analysis commonly adopted by the valuation experts. The study therefore suggests that since there are risks and impact differentials, approach to flood risk analysis should take into consideration the location and neighbourhood peculiarities with respect to the source(s) and nature of flood risks. This would assist in providing a more objective and reliable estimates of flood impact on residential property value.
Keywords: Estate Surveyors, Perception, Flood risk, Residential Property, Value, Flooding
INTRODUCTION
Average global temperatures have increased by 0.7°C over the past century and are now rising by 0.2°C a decade (IPCC, 2007). The report further noted that only 5°C was the average change in global temperatures required to move the Earth from an ice age to the climate of the 20th century. The impact of the current temperature rise/global warming has manifested in changes in weather patterns and such changes and related impacts have added a new dimension of risk for the property sector (LaSalle, 2010). With each passing year, threats of global warming and associated climate changes have attained increasing public attention. The impacts on the financial service sector (banking, insurance, etc.) have been discussed by individual firms for over 25 years (Munich, 1973) and in official international science and public policy circles since at least 1995 (Dlugolecki et al., 1996). Past experience is not a reliable proxy for the patterns of natural disaster under future climate (Sarewitz et al., 2000) and therefore, whether as a result of human-induced or natural forces, investors, policy makers and other stakeholders are confronted with the need to better prepare, predict and withstand the rising tempo of natural disaster and losses arising thereof.
Flooding, being one of the most frequent and widespread of all environmental natural hazards occurs in most terrestrial portions of the globe, causing huge annual losses in terms of damage and disruption to livelihoods, businesses, infrastructure, services and public health (Olorunfemi, 2011). Askew, (1999) in Etuonovbe (2011) affirmed that floods have posed tremendous danger to people’s lives and properties across the globe and are responsible for about one third of all deaths, one third of all injuries and one third of all damage from natural disasters. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies observed that between 1993 and 2002, flood disasters “affected more people across the globe (140 million per year on average) than all the other natural or technological disasters put together” (IFRC, 2003). Similarly, studies by Few et al (2004); UNFCCC (2008) have also shown that as a result of global warming, the climate in Africa and Asia is predicted to become more variable, and extreme weather events are expected to be more frequent and severe, with increasing risk to health and life. This includes increasing risk of drought and flooding in new areas.
According to CRED 2005 (in Sagala, 2006), flood has been a dominant natural hazard in terms of events for recent years in South East Asian countries while ActionAid International, (2006) noted that in Africa, climate change have aggravated urban flooding and have forced many rural people to migrate to town and cities, adding large new populations to existing slum communities. A review of climate change impacts on urbanization by the International Institute of Environment and Development (Huq et al., 2007 cited in Olorunfemi 2011) found that floods are already having severe impacts on cities, smaller urban centres and rural areas in many African nations. For instance, heavy rains in East Africa in 2002 caused floods and mudslides and forced tens of thousands to leave their homes in Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda (Huq et al, 2007). In Nigeria, Akinyemi (1990), Nwaubani (1991), Edward-Adebiyi (1997) noted that flooding in various parts of Nigeria have forced millions of people from their homes, destroyed businesses, polluted water resources and increased the risk of diseases. Etuonovbe (2011) averred that in the last three decades, the impacts of flooding have increasingly assumed threatening proportions, resulting in loss of lives and properties.