Application Of Markov Chain Model In Transition Of Girls In Public Secondary Schools; A Case Study Of Kisumu West Sub-County, Kenya

ABSTRACT

Transition is a very important factor in determining success of a student in secondary

school. It forms a basis for implementing poverty reduction strategy by the government

through acquisition of basic literal skills to increase opportunities for employment. Girls

have not had an efficient transition from form one to the next form in secondary schools

because of choices of secondary school types they enroll in. This research uses a Markov

chain model to compare and predict the percentage transition rates, expected duration of

study and absorbing rates from form one to form four in a period of four years between

2012-2015 of girls in pure public secondary schools compared to those in mixed secondary

schools in Kisumu west Sub county of Kisumu county Kenya. The objectives of this study

were to determine and compare the sub county’s transition rates, expected durations of

study, absorption rates and recommend the best school that will favour efficient transition

for girls. All the four pure girls secondary schools in the sub county were used and

equivalent mixed schools picked by purposive random sampling. The cohort for the study

included the sub county’s form one girl from pure girl secondary and girls from mixed

secondary schools enrolled in 2012, monitored up to form four in 2015. The study realized

that transition rates for girls in pure girls’ schools were higher than those in mixed secondary

schools, expected duration study was shorter in mixed schools compared to those

in pure girls schools and finally higher absorption rates of girls in pure compared to those

in mixed secondary schools in Kisumu West sub county. The dropout rate was higher for

girls in mixed but highest in form threes in mixed. The study would help in choosing the

effective school type for girls and stake holders in adopting the appropriate way to curb

girls attrition.