Are solar home systems a more financially viable method of electrifying Ghana households?

Abstract

Africa still has the lowest electrification rates in the world with over 600 million people

estimated to be living without access to electricity. What makes the challenge even greater for

Africa is that the continent is so sparsely populated that building grid infrastructure is not viable

in many cases. However, “pay-as-you-go” solar home systems have provided the continent with

the opportunity to correct its electrification deficit. These innovations are not new and many of

the costs of operating these systems have reached grid parity when one considers the Levelized

Cost of Energy Model. However, these projects still fail to meet institutional investors’

bankability criteria. The aim of this study is to try and understand whether solar home systems

provide the investor with an opportunity to make a larger risk-adjusted return versus existing

grid-based power station projects being considered on the continent. This study uses Ghana’s

recently built Kpone power station as a case study to complete this analysis. The study also

seeks to assess what viability criteria is employed by a broad base of investors if they were to

consider funding off-grid power. The study makes use of the Net Present Value model to

compare the returns for Kpone and Zola Electric’s Infinity solar home system. The study also

conducts inductive qualitative analysis to try and ascertain what criteria is assessed for project

viability and then builds a conceptual framework for assessing future projects. The study found

that Kpone provided a better risk-adjusted return to that of Zola Electric’s solar home system,

largely because of Kpone’s project finance structure reducing the risk of the investment. Our

findings also show that investment ticket size, company track record and management track

record are among the most highly considered criteria for investments into off-grid companies.