ASSESSMENT OF FARMERS PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION PLANNING IN OGBOMOSHO AND ITS ENVIRONS, OYO STATE NIGERIA

ASSESSMENT OF FARMERS PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION PLANNING IN OGBOMOSHO AND ITS ENVIRONS, OYO STATE NIGERIA

BY

IMORU, Ahmed Abimbola

(2011/1/38130BG)

PROJECT SUBMITTED TO 

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY

SCHOOL OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES (SPS) 

FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, MINNA, NIGERIA

IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY (B.Tech) IN GEOGRAPHY (METEOROLOGY)

SEPTEMBER, 2016                            

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this project titled: “Assessment of Farmers Perception on Climate Variability And Its Impact On Crop Production Planning In Ogbomosho And Its Environs, Oyo State Nigeria’’ is a collection of my original research work and has not been presented for any qualification anywhere. Information from other source (published or unpublished) has been duly acknowledged and referenced. 

                                          

IMORU Ahmed Abimbola                                                         _____________________

2011/1/38130BG                                                                                  Signature & Date

Federal University of Technology

Minna, Nigeria

CERTIFICATION

This project research work titled “Assessment of Farmers Perception on Climate Variability And Its Impact On Crop Production Planning In Ogbomosho And Its Environs, Oyo State Nigeria’’ by IMORU AHMED ABIMBOLA with matriculation number (2011/1/38130BG) meets the regulation governing the award of the degree of Bachelor of Technology (B.Tech) of Federal University of Technology, Minna and it is approved for its contribution to the scientific knowledge and literal presentation.

Dr. T. I. Yahaya                                                                    _________________________

Supervisor                                                                            Signature & Date

     

Dr. (Mrs) A. Abdulkadir                                       _________________________ 

      

Head of Department                              Signature & Date

                   

Prof. A. S. Abubakar                     _________________________ 

     

Dean School of Science                         Signature & Date

DEDICATION

This research work is dedicated to God Almighty, the most gracious the most merciful.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

My utmost gratitude goes to Almighty God for His provision, protection and guidance over my life. I thank Him for the accomplishment of this work because He is my source of wisdom and strength.

My sincere gratitude also goes to my project supervisor in the person of Dr T I YAHAYA who took his time even when it was not convenient to put me through this work. I also want to say a big thank you the H.O.D Dr (Mrs.) Aishatu Abdulkadir and to all my lecturers that at one point or the other impacted wisdom and knowledge into me and that has made me able to succeed in this research work. God bless you all.

My profound gratitude goes to my parents Mr & Mrs D Imoru for their unconditional care, financial commitment, prayers and words of encouragement and their immeasurable love. May almighty God continue to bless you, I also wish to acknowledge the support of my brothers and sisters for their financial supports. Love you all.

I also appreciate my dearest big sister Aunty Bola for their time, love and encouragement and financial supports may God bless you

Also to my friends Sir Jerry, Solomon, Bello, Frayo  Solomon, Eassy Lukman, Elizabeth Nofisat, Nimat, omowumi, Hafeez, Abdul, Abdullateef, Abdfatah  for their contribution to my life. Thank you all, God bless.

ABSTRACT

Climate variability is a threat to agriculture and non-agricultural socio-economic development; agricultural production activities are generally more vulnerable to climate variability than other sectors. This study is to examine farmers perception on impact of climate variability and food production planning in Ogbomosho Local Government Area of Oyo State. It examine the variation in some climatic indicators such as rainfall and temperature in the study area between 1995-2015), it analyze the  relationship between indicators on crop production planning in the study area and access the farmers perception on indicators of climate variability and crop production planning. Qualitative and quantitative techniques were used, climate variability data of 1995 to 2015 was acquired, Structural questionnaire was also used to elicit farmers perception of climate variability in the area. The findings shows that trend of temperature over the years in Ogbomosho reveals that the temperature from 2008 was constantly increasing except for the fall in 2004 and 2005, but they never went below 32oC in 2004. The year 2013 experienced the highest temperature of 35oC. The relationship between temperature and crop production in Ogbomosho using the Pearson correlation technique where crop production is dependent variables and temperature, the independent variable. The mean value of crop production against the numbers of hectare of land cultivated and the mean value of temperature were used to determine their relationship. It also revealed that 31.1% indicated delayed rainfall, 24.7% indicated higher temperature 11.7% indicated unusual heavy rainfall, 9.4% indicated fast water evaporation and undefined season while 5.0%, 4.4% and 4.2% indicated more longer days than night, flood with serious consequence and late fruiting of tree crops respectively as the determinant of climate change in their environment. The study concluded that the relationship between climatic elements and crop production in Ogbomosho is positively significant. This means that rainfall and temperature influence crop planning but other environmental factor such as soil fertility, type, and temperature technology etc. should also be put into consideration. The study thereby recommend that crop production should be regressed on other environmental factors such as soil fertility and longer period of data could be collected for better analysis

TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                                                                                   Page

Title Page            i                                                                                      

Declaration                                                                                                                             ii

Certification                                                                                                                           iii

Dedication                                                                                                                              iv

Acknowledgments                                                                                                                  v

Abstract                                                                                                                                 vi

Table of Content                                                                                                                   vii

List of Tables                                                                                                                        x

List of Figures                                                                                                                       xi

CHAPTER ONE

1.0INTRODUCTION1 

1.1Background of the Study1

1.2Statement of the problem 3

1.3Aim and Objectives 5

1.4Research Questions6

1.5Scope of the Study6

1.6Justification of the Study 6

1.7Study Area8

1.7.1   Climate of the study area                                                                                            10

1.7.2    Vegetation                                          11

1.7.3    Soil11

1.7.4    Topography 11

CHAPTER TWO

2.0LITERATURE REVIEW12

2.1Crop Production 12

                                                                                                                                              Page

2.2Conceptual Framework on Climate Variability15

2.3Impacts of Climate Variability on Agricultural Production 16

2.4 Relationship Between Climate Variability and Agriculture 18 

2.5Variability in Rainfall and Temperature 20

2.6Implications of Variability in Rainfall on Crop Yields22

2.7Climate Variability and Trends in Agricultural Planning 23

2.8Gaps in Literature Review24

CHAPTER THREE

3.0MATERIALS AND METHODS25

3.1Research Design 25

3.2Type and Sources of Data25

3.3Methods of Data Collection 26

3.3.1    Weather Data26

3.4 Sample Size26

3.5Method of Data Analysis27

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0    RESULTS AND DISCUSSION                                                                                29

4.1 Examine the variation in some climatic indicators in the study area                             29                       

4.2 The relationship between indicators on crop production planning in the study area     31

4.3 Farmers perception on indicators of climate variability and production planning        33

4.4 Perceived Adaptation strategies to mitigate impact of climate variability                    36

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION                                  39

5.1 Summary                                                                                                                        39

5.2 Conclusion                                                                                                                     39

                                                                                                                                          Page

5.3 Recommendation                                                                                                           40

REERENCE                                                                                                                       42

APPENDICES                                                                                                                    44

Table      LIST OF TABLES                                                        Page

4.1: Summary of the analysis                                                                                                  33

4.2: Socio – economic characteristics of the respondents                                                       34 

4.3: Farmer’s perception of climate variability                                                                       35

4.4: Impacts of climate variability on crop production                                                           36

4.5: Adaptation strategies to climate variability                                                                     37

4.6: Regression analysis on perception of climate variability & adaption strategies             38 

Figure                                                    LIST OF FIGURES                                                Page

1.1: Location of Ogbomosho in Nigeria                                                                                       9

1.2: Map of Oyo state showing Ogbomosho                                                                                10

2.1: Conceptual framework showing steps involved in planned agricultural and climate variability                                                                                                                                     16

4.1: Yearly minimum and maximum temperature in Ogbomosho                                              29

4.2: Rainfall pattern in Ogbomosho                                                                                             30

4.3: Line graph showing the relationship between rainfall and crop production                         31

4.4: Line graph showing the relationship between temperature and crop production                 32