Effect Of Mortality, Fertility and Net Migration on Population Growth in Uganda (1985-2015)

ABSTRACT The study aimed at examining the effect of mortality rate fertility rate and net migration on population growth in Uganda from the period of 1985 to 2015 using time series data. Specifically, the study aimed at examining how each of these variables affects population growth. The objectives were; to examine the relationship between mortality rate and population growth rate in Uganda, to determine the relationship between fertility rate and population growth rate in Uganda are and to assess the relationship between net migration and population growth rate in Uganda rate. The hypothesis of the study was that there is no significant relationship between the independent variables of mortality rate, fertility rate, net migration and the dependent variable of population growth in Uganda. The study tested for stationarity among variables using ADF and Philip Perron methods. The stationarity results showed that all the variables of the study were stationary at level. Correlation analysis was used to exhaustively discuss the objectives. The findings from the correlation analysis indicated that fertility rate (r=0.228) and net migration (r=0.275) had appositive relationship with population growth while mortality rate (r=-0.30) had a negative relationship with population growth rate. Furthermore, the regression model showed that net migration has a positive significant effect on population growth also fertility rate has a positive non significant relationship with population growth rate. On the other hand, mortality rate has a negative significant impact of population growth. The study concluded that fertility rate and net migration are positively related to population growth while mortality rate is negatively related to population growth. Basing on the findings, this study recommended that there should be improvement on the health facilities across the country as a way of reducing infant and child mortality and that the policy makers must ensure that there is equitable and proportional distribution of resources to all geographical locations whether urban or rural in the country. Finally, the study recommended that through government and NGOs, contraception counseling be provided by trained family or general physicians and be conducted prior to marriage as this will better inform couples with choices of contraception. This will also contribute to meeting the unmet need for contraception and reducing unwanted fertility thus reducing population growth rate in the country.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION

APPROVAL

DEDICATION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

ABSTRACT

CHAPTER ONE 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.0 Introduction 1

1.1 Background to the study 1

1.1.1 Historical Perspective 1

1.1.2 Theoretical Perspective 5

1.1.3 Conceptual Perspective 6

1.1.4 Contextual Perspective 6

1.2 Statement of the Problem 7

1.3 Purpose of the study 8

1.4 Specific Objectives 8

1.6 Scope of the study 9

1.7 Significance of the study 9

1.8 Operational Definition of the Key Terms 10

vi

CHAPTER TWO ii

LITERATURE REVIEW ii

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Theoretical Review 11

2.2 Conceptual Framework 23

2.3 Review of Related Literature 23

2.4 Related studies 27

2.5 Research gap 30

CHAPTER THREE 31

METHODOLOGY 31

3.1 Introduction 31

3.2 Research Design 31

3.3 Theoretical framework 31

3.4 Research Techniques 33

3.5 Data collection and Data sources 33

3.6 Data Analysis 33

3.7.1 Testing for Stationarity 34

3.7.2 The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test 35

3.8 Diagnostic Tools 36

3.8.1 Normality Test 36

3.8.2 Auto-correlation 36

3.8.3 Heteroscedasticity Test 36

3.8.4 Multicollinearity Test 36

3.9 Units of Measurements 37

3.10 Ethical Consideration 37

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3.11 Limitations of the study .3~

CHAPTER FOUR 38

DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS, AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS 38

4.1 Descriptive Statistics 38

4.2 Unit Roots Test 42

4.3 Correlation Analysis 43

4.3.1 Relationship between mortality rate and population growth in Uganda 43

4.3.2 Relationship between fertility rate and population growth rate in Uganda 44

4.3.3 Relationship between net migration and population growth rate in Uganda 44

4.4. Regression output for the variables understudy 44

4.5 Post Estimation Diagnostic Tests 46

4.5.1 The Shapiro-Wilk Test for Normality 46

4.5.2 Test for Autocorrelation; 47

4.5.3 Test for heteroscedasticity 47

4.5.4 Test for Multicollinearity 47

CHAPTER FIVE 49

DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 49

5.1. Discussion of Findings 49

5.1.1 Relationship between mortality and population growth in Uganda 49

5.1.2 Relationship between fertility and population growth in Uganda 50

5.1.3 Relationship between Net-Migration and Population growth 50

5.2 Conclusion 51

5.2.1 Relationship between mortality rate and population growth in Uganda 51

5.2.2 Relationship between fertility rateand Population growth in Uganda 51

5.2.3 Relationship between Net-Migration and Population growth in Uganda 52

5.3. Policy Recommendations 52

5.4. Limitations of the study 53

5.5. Suggestions for Further Research 54

REFERENCES 55