Effects Of Climate Variability On Pastoral Livelihoods In Marigat District, Baringo County, Kenya

ABSTRACT

The expected global temperature increase, more intense rainfall and more frequent droughts will have devastating effects on pastoral livelihoods. The economy of the affected areas also dwindle in the event of these calamities considering that droughts and diseases resulting from floods affect the health of livestock which is the major source of livelihood for the pastoralists. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate variability and the resulting vector-borne diseases on pastoral livelihoods from 1971 to 2010 in Marigat district, Baringo County. The study hypothesized that there is no relationship between rainfall patterns and number of cases of selected vector-borne diseases over the study period. The study adopted both descriptive and explanatory research design while data sampling involved stratified random sampling procedure (Stratum 1 being Marigat division and stratum 2 being Mukutani division). This study utilized household structured questionnaires administered through pure random sampling with 136 households participating in the study, institutional questionnaires as well as collection of secondary data from various sources as methods of data collection. A number of bivariate comparisons of variables related to pastoral livelihoods were done. These includes t-test to compare means of variable on pastoralists demographic such as age between the two strata, ANOVA analysis to compare for significant differences in the cases of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) disease between the four sub-locations, correlation analysis to test the relationship between rainfall amounts with number of cases of vector-borne diseases, and Chi-square test (χ2) to test cross-tabulated data on variables such as perception of pastoralists on trends of climatic variables and socio-economic variables between the 2 strata. The Chi-square test was used to assess for homogeneity or similarity on categorical response variables between the study strata. The correlation results of this study indicated that apart from Heartwater (p=-0.403, sig=0.012 and N=38), other veterinary diseases had no relationship with the rainfall amount {Trypanosomiasis (p=-0.224, sig=0.189 and N=36), Babesiosis (p=-0.124, sig=0.457 and N=38), Anaplasmosis (p=-0.156, sig=0.351 and N=38) and East Coast Fever (p=-0.224, sig=0.176 and N=38)}. However, graphical plots depict the existence of relationships with disease cases either increasing or decreasing in frequency with a corresponding increase or decrease in rainfall amount. Chi-square results showed a strong statistically significant difference between the responses in strata 1 and 2 on the perceived trend of rainfall and floods towards the future (rainfall: χ2= 41.230, df= 3, p= 0.000 and floods: χ2= 24.903, df= 3, p= 0.000). Also, there was no statistically significant difference between the perception of the respondents in Strata 1 and 2 on the trend of tsetse flies (χ2= 0.115, df= 3, p= 0.990) and Stomoxys (χ2= 6.677. df= 3, p= 0.83) while significant difference were observed on the trend of Tabanids (χ2= 20.240, df= 3, p= 0.000) , Culicoides (χ2= 23.863, df=3, p= 0.000) and Sand flies (χ2= 15.429, df= 3, p= 0.001). Increase in disease cases could be attributed to climate variability. The study recommends the need to put in place contingency measures for reccurrence of diseases, floods and droughts and strengthening local institutions to be able to deal with climatic disasters resulting from climate variability and change. Regular monitoring of weather, vectors and diseases are also recommended.