Modeling Monthly Average Temperature of Dhahran City of Saudi-Arabia Using Arima Models

Temperature is the coldness and hotness of the body and its unit is measured in Celsius. The data used for this

research work is the average monthly temperature of Dhahran city which is located in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The data

range is from 1951 to 2010, and sample data of 1951 to 2008 was used for the estimation to choose the best model and the

sample data from 2009 through 2010 was left for the forecast. Different models were tried but ARIMA (2, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 is

selected as the best model because of its low sic and aic criteria and also the forecast error, the best model is used for

forecasting.

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