TABLE OF CONTENTS
APPROVAL FORM .................................................................................................................. I
RELEASE FORM ..................................................................................................................... II
DEDICATION ......................................................................................................................... III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................... IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................... V
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................ VIII
LIST OF ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................... IX
CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................... 1
1.3 PROBLEM DEFINITION ............................................................................................................................... 2
1.4 AIM ........................................................................................................................................................... 2
1.4.1 Specific objectives ........................................................................................................................... 2
1.4.2 Research questions ......................................................................................................................... 3
1.5 JUSTIFICATION OF STUDY .......................................................................................................................... 3
1.6 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................. 3
1.7 PROJECT OUTLINE ..................................................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 6
2.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 WHY LOAD FORECASTING ......................................................................................................................... 6
2.3 TYPES OF LOAD FORECASTING .................................................................................................................. 8
2.4 LOAD FORECASTING METHODS AND FACTORS ........................................................................................... 9
2.4.1 Short term ....................................................................................................................................... 9
2.4.2 Medium and long term .................................................................................................................. 10
2.5 THE ENHANCEMENT OF SPATIAL DATA IN LOAD FORECASTING ............................................................... 14
2.6 SPATIAL LOAD FORECASTING CASE STUDIES ........................................................................................... 15
2.7 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 16
CHAPTER THREE: METHODS ............................................................................................ 17
3.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 17
3.2 RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................................................................................. 17
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3.3 STUDY POPULATION ................................................................................................................................ 17
3.4 DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUE ............................................................................................................... 17
3.5 DATA DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................................. 18
3.5.1 Historical electric usage data ....................................................................................................... 18
3.5.2 City of Mutare master plan ........................................................................................................... 18
3.5.3 Mutare cadastral map ................................................................................................................... 18
3.6 DATA PROCESSING .................................................................................................................................. 18
3.7 METHODS FLOW CHART .......................................................................................................................... 20
3.8 DATA MODELLING: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS ................................................................................. 21
3.8.1 Exploratory regression ................................................................................................................. 21
3.8.2 Ordinary least squares regression ................................................................................................ 21
3.9 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 21
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS .................................................................................................... 22
4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 22
4.2 EXPLORATORY REGRESSION.................................................................................................................... 22
4.3 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION ................................................................................................ 23
4.4 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 29
CHAPTER FIVE: ANALYSIS OF RESULTS .................................................................................... 30
CHAPTER SIX: LIMITATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................ 31
6.1 RESEARCH LIMITATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 31
6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 31
6.3 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 31
REERENCE LIST ................................................................................................................................ 33
ANNEXURES ...................................................................................................................................... 35
ANNEXURE 1: EXPLORATORY REGRESSION ...................................................................................................... 35
ANNEXURE 2: ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REPORT .......................................................................................... 39
Variable Distributions and Relationships .................................................................................................... 40
Histogram of Standardized Residuals ......................................................................................................... 41
Residual vs. Predicted Plot .......................................................................................................................... 42
Ordinary Least Squares Parameters ............................................................................................................ 43
SERERE, H (2021). Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare. Afribary. Retrieved from https://tracking.afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare
SERERE, HELEN "Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare" Afribary. Afribary, 04 May. 2021, https://tracking.afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare. Accessed 24 Nov. 2024.
SERERE, HELEN . "Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare". Afribary, Afribary, 04 May. 2021. Web. 24 Nov. 2024. < https://tracking.afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare >.
SERERE, HELEN . "Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare" Afribary (2021). Accessed November 24, 2024. https://tracking.afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare