Use Of Seasonal Climate Forecast And Drought Effects On Livestock Assets In Baringo County, Kenya

ABSTRACT

Increased frequency, severity and duration of drought events in arid and semi-arid regions (ASALs) of Kenyan increase scarcity in water and pastures that support livestock assets. This destabilizes the livelihood base dependent on livestock assets. Use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can provide early warning of the drought events and inform actions to reduce vulnerability of pastoral households to drought effects. This study assessed trends and severity of drought events, their effects on livestock assets, effectiveness and usefulness of SCF in predicting drought events, and identified enabling conditions for better use of SCF. The study was in the ASALs of Baringo County in Lower Midland 5 (LM5) and Inner Lowland 6 (IL6) Agro-ecological zones. Data was from Meteorological Services, household survey, Key Informant interviews, and secondary sources. Computation of drought indices determined trends and severity of droughts. Means comparisons and Chi square determined drought effects on livestock assets and enabling conditions for use of SCF. Sensitivity analysis and correlation tests determined effectiveness and usefulness of SCF. Results showed a declining trend in rainfall between 1970 and 2008 with marked peak periods and extreme low rainfall corresponding to extreme climatic events. Drought re-occurrences were within shorter intervals and were characterised by trekking livestock, loss of livestock assets and decline in market value of stock. These observations corroborated with perceptions of pastoralists that livestock asset loss increases, productivity declines and stock market value declines during droughts. Annual rainfall correlated negatively (r = - 0.6879, p