A Comparative Study To Predict And Evaluate The Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Using Time Series Intervention In Khartoum State

Abstract

The analysis of time series is one of the important statistical topics in the

analysis of the impact of many phenomena. The time series is a series of

observations taken at intervals due to the tracking of this phenomenon for a relatively long period of time and often this time period is regular . In this study, intervention models for time series were applied to measure the impact of changes that occurred before and after the passage of the Traffic Law in 2010, based on the monthly data for the period 2005-2014 .The problem of this study is that there is an increase in the number of traffic accidents and the number of deaths and injuries that exceeded the scheduled speed of one of the reasons and increase the number of violators and irregularities and the seriousness of accidents and the resultant, and the volume of these problems with the increase in the number of vehicles used on the road,

Nowadays . The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the changes that occurred after the passage of the Traffic Law in 2010 and to highlight traffic

accidents resulting from the use of vehicles and their negative effects on society. This research aims to monitor and analyze the various published data in a scientific methodology as well as the policies related to this aspect and provide a set of recommendations that suit our local conditions and our Sudanese privacy. And the study of time series intervention to determine the impact of the intervention model of traffic law. The hypothesis of the study is to analyze the models of time series intervention that have the ability to show the effect of laws on the decrease and increase of variables. The model of the intervention of ARIMA is better to measure the impact of changes in traffic accidents, and there is a subjective correlation between errors (non-ndependence) Has the ability to solve the problem of selfcorrelation between independent variables. The results of the data analysis showed

that the use of the model of time series intervention in the study of the impact of changes in traffic accidents as a result of the development of the law is the

appropriate model that governs traffic, Arima's income to measure the impact of road traffic interventions is the first-class Arima model. The passage of the traffic law in 2010 has led to a reduction in traffic accidents. The most important conclusions are that time series, not traffic accident types, are stable chains, as well as adequate and appropriate intervention models to measure the impact of changes in the development of regulations, controls and laws, and that the laws that have been developed have made traffic accidents decrease, thus enhancing traffic safety. The results of the researcher can be used by the beneficiary (Traffic Department) to determine the impact of traffic laws to control traffic accidents in the future.