An Analysis Of Macroeconomic Determinants Of House Price Volatility In Namibia

ABSTRACT 

The housing sector plays a significant role in the economy. However, house prices are presumed to be more volatile than other goods and services, because of their high demand. This study aimed to conduct an empirical analysis of the determinants of house price volatility in Namibia. Moreover, the direction of causality between house price volatility and the macroeconomic determinants was examined. The ARCH and GARCH models together with the VAR/VECM approaches were used to analyse quarterly data from 2007 quarter 1 to 2017 quarter 2. The findings show that house prices in Namibia are volatile and the volatility is highly persistent. A long-run relationship was established between house price volatility and the macroeconomic determinants. It was further established that volatility itself, GDP and mortgage loans significantly determine house price volatility. In addition, a unidirectional causality from GDP and mortgage loans to house price volatility was found. The IRF analysis showed that shocks to the selected macroeconomic variables, except the prime lending rate magnify volatility. The VDC analysis also confirmed that mortgage loans and current volatility are the most significant variables that explain variation in house price volatility. Policymakers should, therefore, monitor macroeconomic factors closely and ensure that the economy is growing to mitigate the issues of house price volatility.