Balance of Trade and Economic Growth in Uganda (1984-2014)

ABSTRACT The study was set to investigate the relationship between trade balance and economic growth rate of Uganda from 1984-2014. The objective was to determine the level of balance of trade in Uganda from 1984-2014 (ii) to establish the level of economic growth of Uganda from 1984-2014 and to establish the relationship between balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda 1984-2014. The study was a time series research that involved analysis of the historical data for the Uganda balance of trade and economic growth rates for the year, 1984 to 2014. The data was attained from the international monetary fund abstracts, World Bank reports and World economic outlook. The data adopted a correlation design based on quantitative research approach. In conclusion, the study was successfully carried out and all the objectives fulfilled. The first objective was accomplished where it was found that the level of balance of trade was in deficit over the period of 31 years in Uganda though some improvements in deficits were cited in some years. The level of economic growth of Uganda was both in its highs and lows though some years experienced increases there is really a double digit economic growth indicate seen. The researcher on the third objective established that there was a closer relationship between the balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda from 1984-2014. The level of relationship was found on all parameters used for measurements The researcher recommends that there is need to improve exports through establishing export substitution industries in order to produce more exports. The government should embark on industrialization, and modern technique of agricultural production since this area can employ large population resulting into high productivity. The relationship was found positive therefore there is need for supporting domestic investors that will be able to reinvest their profits for further development.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION

APPROVAL

DEDICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS v

LIST OF TABLES viii

LIST OF FIGURES ix

ABSTRACT x

CHAPTER ONE 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.0 Introduction 1

1.1 Background of the Study 1

1.1.1 Historical Perspective 1

1.1.2 Theoretical Perspective 3

1.1.3 Conceptual Perspective 4

1.1.4 Contextual Perspective 5

1.2 Statement of the problem 6

1.3 Purpose of the study 6

1.4 Objectives of the study 6

1.5 Research Questions 6

1.6 Hypothesis 7

1.7 Scope of the study 7

1.7.1 Subject scope 7

1.7.2 Geographical Scope 7

1.7.3TimeScope 7

1.7.4 Theoretical Scope 7

1.8 Significance of the study 8

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1.8 Operational definitions of key terms .8

CHAPTER TWO 11

LITREATURE REVIEW 11

2.0 Introduction 11

2.1 Theoretical Review 11

2.2 Conceptual framework 13

2.3 Review of related literature 14

2.3.1 Level of Balance of trade in Uganda 14

2.3.2 Level of economic growth in Uganda 17

2.4 Relationship between balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda 21

2.5 Research Gap 23

CHAPTER THREE 25

METHODOLGY 25

3.0 Introduction 25

3.1 Research Design 25

3.2 Data Collection Instruments 25

3.3 Sources of Data 25

3.4 Data Analysis 25

3.5 Limitations of the Study 27

3.6 Ethical Consideration 27

CHAPTER FOUR 28

PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA 28

4.0 Introduction 28

4.1 The Level of balance of trade in Uganda from 1984-2014 28

4.2 The Level of economic growth of Uganda for the Year (1984 — 2014) 29

4.3 Descriptive statistical analysis of the Balance of trade and economic growth rate

of Uganda 33

4.4 Relationship between Balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda (1984-

2014) 40

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4.4.1 Scatter Plot Showing relationship between balance of trade and economic

growth of Uganda (1984-2014) 42

4.4.2 Correlation analysis between balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda

43

4.4.3 Regression analysis between balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda

44

CHAPTER FIVE 46

DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 46

5.0 Introduction 46

5.lDiscussion of the Findings 46

5.2 Conclusion 48

5.3 Recommendations 49

5.1.1 The level of balance of trade in Uganda from 1984-2014 49

5.1.2 Level of economic growth of Uganda from 1984-2014 49

5.1.3 Relationship between balance of trade and economic growth 49

5.4 Areas for Further Research 50

REFERENCES 51

Appendix i: Research Instruments 55

Appendix ii: Research Budget 59

Appendix iii: Research Time Frame 60