Effect Of Climate Variability On Output And Yields Of Selected Crops In Kenya

The agricultural sector plays a critical role in the Kenyan economy; it contributes to about 30 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs over 40 percent of total population. It also accounts for more than 60 percent of export earnings and about 45 percent of government revenue. Indeed the sector forms a strong base for food security, creation of employment and generation of foreign exchange. Majority of industries in Kenya are agro-based, making the agriculture sector central to the country’s development strategy. The agricultural sector largely depends on climate variables and is highly sensitive to climate variability such as a change in temperature and precipitation. These changes can potentially compromise agricultural production thereby have negative impact on rural economy, food security, trade balance and foreign exchange earnings. It is therefore imperative to understand the effects of the changing temperature and rainfall patterns in Kenya, to which this study has contributed by way of analyzing the responsiveness of major agricultural crops to climate variability. The crops considered namely maize, tea and coffee, play a significant role in Kenya's economic growth. Maize is critical to food security while tea and coffee are important for the improvement of trade balance, foreign earnings, employment, income generation, poverty alleviation as well as economic growth and development. However, maize production has greatly fluctuated leaving about 40 percent of population food insecure. In addition, the growth rate of tea and coffee production shows a falling trend over the study period that could adversely affect foreign exchange earnings, income generation and food security. The study utilized secondary data on respective variables in the period between 1970 and 2014. Data was collected from various government publications, Kenya Meteorological Department and FAOSTAT.  The study adopted modeling approach. The study findings show that climate variability has adverse effects on crop output and yield. In addition, the study finds a non linear relationship between crop yields and seasonal rainfall and mean temperature. However, the direction and magnitude of the effects vary depending on the season. Moreover, the findings show a negative effect of temperature variability on crops output and yield. Hence, there is need to elevate the potential of rain fed agriculture in the midst of the risks posed by climate variability. The study recommends harvesting and efficient use of water to support rainfed agriculture and provides ground for government action in establishing measures towards mitigation and adaptation to climate variability. As well, climate variability affects the optimal requirements for crop growth and development at various stages and thus policies targeting non-rain fed agriculture could be most appropriate.