Diversification of the Nigerian Economy: Non-Oil Export as a Panacea for Inclusive Economic Growth

                                                              ABSTRACT

Non-oil export has been an alternative way to diversify Nigerian economy so as to absorb any shocks from the international oil (crude oil) market, since revenue stability is not guaranteed from crude oil again. Therefore, the study examines the diversification to non-oil export as a panacea for checking poverty, unemployment, low revenue and economic recession through inclusive economic growth in Nigeria using data between 1981 and 2016. In achieving the objectives of the study, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and ARDL Bounds co-integration test is employed to test for stochastic characteristics of the variables. Results from ARDL unit root test showed that only domestic investment is stationary at level I (0) while others varibale became stationary after first difference I (1). ARDL bound test showed that there exists no long run relationship between non-oil export and inclusive economic growth having controlled for other vital  growth determinants in Nigeria. Empirically, the result showed that a negative relationship exists between domestic investment and inclusive economic growth. On the other hand, there is positive and significant relationship between nominal exchange rate and inclusive economic growth  while non-oil export and trade openness are statistically significant but negative. Generally, the contribution of non-oil export to Nigerian economy  (inclusive economic growth ) has remained low during the year covered. It therefore predicts a continuous poor performance of economy if necessary policies are not taken to strengthen non-oil sector. Therefore, the study make some recommendation that will aid non-oil sector in order to diversify the economy from monoculture economy to a multicultural economy and creating economic environment which will help boost the activity of non-oil export sector.

TABLE OF CONTENT

1.0 Introduction 

     1.1 statement of the problem

     1.2 research Hypothesis

2.0 Overview of Nigerian non-oil sector performance 

3.0 Literature Review

4.0 Methodology and Analysis 

4.1 Empirical Framework and Model Specification 

4.2 Empirical Results and Discussion 

      4.2.1 Result of Unit Root Test

      4.2.2 Result of Co-integration Test

      4.2.3 Regression Result 

      4.2.4  Test of Hypothesis

5.0 Conclusion and Policy Recommendation

References

Appendix: Data Set