The Relative Impact Of Oil And Non-Oil Exports On Economic Growth In Nigeria: 1983-2007

                                                                                       


ABSTRACT


The study is made up of two independent models, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Investment respectively. The independent variables Oil export, Non-oil export, Real exchange rate and Inflation rate were modeled to capture their effect on GDP and Investment respectively.


The study employed Log Linear Model. Following the empirical findings in this study, we observed that, Non-oil export have not contributed a lot to economic growth in Nigeria but other indicators exert enough pressure on the strength of the economy, evidence from the result of the first model. Judging from the result of the second model, Oil export proves a negative non significant variable with investment growth in Nigeria.


The study recommends appropriate economic policies, institutional reforms and massive political will for the country to address the issues of dwindling exportation of Non-oil sector and the trap of Dutch Disease associated with oil-dependency.  


 
 
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LIST OF TABLE


Unit Root Test for Stationarity ------------------------------------------- 42


Co-integration Result ------------------------------------------------------ 45


Modeling Log of Differenced GDP by OLS --------------------------- 45


Modeling Log of Differenced INV by OLS ---------------------------- 46


Summary of t-statistic test for model 1 ---------------------------------- 50


Summary of t-statistic test for model 2 ---------------------------------- 52


 
 

 
TABLE OF CONTENT


Title page ----------------------------------------------------------------        i


Approval page ----------------------------------------------------------        ii


Dedication --------------------------------------------------------------         iii


Acknowledgement -----------------------------------------------------         iv


Abstract -----------------------------------------------------------------          v


List of tables -----------------------------------------------------------          vi


Table of content ---------------------------------------------------  vii

           CHAPTER ONE


1.0    Introduction -------------------------------------------------------        1


1.1 Background of study ---------------------------------------------        1


1.2 Statement of problem --------------------------------------------        3


1.3 Objective of the study -------------------------------------------        5


1.4 Statement of hypothesis -----------------------------------------        5


1.5 Significance of the study ----------------------------------------        6


1.6 Scope and limitations of the study -----------------------------        6



                 CHAPTER TWO     
2.1 Meaning of oil and non-oil exports ----------------------------        7


2.2 A brief historical perspective on oil in Nigeria --------------        7


2.3 Oil and economic policies in Nigeria -------------------------        10


2.4 The Dutch-Disease ----------------------------------------------        15


2.5 The boom and burst periods in oil sector and policy response -----17 


2.6 Macroeconomic policies and structure of Non-oil export in Nigeria-22


2.7 Oil export, Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria ------- 26


          Empirical Literature----------------------------------------------------29

                       CHAPTER THREE


Research methodology--------------------------------------------------------35


3.1 Model Specification------------------------------------------------------35


3.2 Method of Evaluation----------------------------------------------------37

                      CHAPTER FOUR


4.1 Data presentation---------------------------------------------------------41


4.2 Data Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------44



                   CHAPTER FIVE
  Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation---------------------------58


5.1 Summary------------------------------------------------------------------58


5.2 Conclusion----------------------------------------------------------------61


5.3 Recommendation---------------------------------------------------------62


    BIBLIOGRAPHY---------------------------------------------------------66


Appendix